MONTPELIER, Vt. (WCAX) – Vermont lawmakers will soon return to Montpelier for the new legislative biennium. The top priority will be tackling two interconnected crises: the cost of education and the cost of health care. Our Calvin Cutler lays out the problem and the potential solutions.
Two of the biggest issues Vermont faces are education property taxes and the skyrocketing cost of health care, both issues experts say get back to our aging demographics.
In recent years, commercial health insurance has increased by double digits, driven by older Vermonters utilizing more expensive and more frequent care at facilities like the Northeastern Vermont Regional Hospital in St. Johnsbury.
“I like to tell people Vermont is one of the oldest states in the country and the Northeast Kingdom is one of the oldest regions in Vermont,” said Shawn Tester, the hospital CEO.
The Kingdom isn’t alone. Vermont’s aging population is driving costs at nearly all of the state’s hospitals, with more people needing care and fewer people in the workforce to pay insurance premiums to support them.
It’s a similar problem for education, with rising costs and fewer people in the workforce to afford the taxes to pay for schools.
“When we take a look at the root causes of these symptoms it comes back to housing scarcity and demographics in particular,” said Kevin Chu, the executive director of the Vermont Futures Project.
The numbers illustrate the problem:
In 2000, Vermont had about 226,000 working-age people between 25 and 49, and 77,000 people over 65.
In 2024, the workforce has shrunk by 14% to 194,000, while the retirement-age population has nearly doubled to 143,000.
In the next decade, state officials project the trend will continue with an additional 17,000 retirements annually.
Chu says we have two options: cut costs by closing or consolidating hospitals and schools, or grow by accelerating housing development, recruiting employers and making our workforce bigger.
“If you live in a town of 1,000 people, the question is how do we add 20 new people next year? If every town location around the state and every Vermonter leans into this, the aggregation of all of these small actions will lead us to big change,” Chu said.
Back at the Northeastern Vermont Regional Hospital, Tester stresses that continuing to invest in schools and hospitals while we grow our workforce is vital.
“We need strong hospitals and a strong health care system to attract those people because that’s what’s going to make our communities stronger in the long run,” Tester said.
The renewed conversation around the aging population and housing comes during a shift in the balance of power at the Statehouse. Lawmakers return in early January.